After two years of breakneck growth, the China 5G juggernaut is finally slowing down.

Since commercial launch in December 2019, Chinese operators have rolled out 1.5 million 5G basestations – more than three-fifths of the global total – and clocked up 355 million subscribers.

Now signs suggest that growth has peaked. One indicator is the decline in operator capex.

China Telecom expects to cut 5G investment by 10.5% to 34 billion yuan (US$5.34 billion) this year, president Li Zhengmao told a results briefing last week. He said that 5G spending would be "stable and moderate" over the next two years.

China Mobile has forecasted a slide in 5G capex as well, despite being only mid-way through its 700MHz network rollout in partnership with China Broadcast Network (see China Mobile faces $15B bill for second 5G network).

The big telco has budgeted for 110 billion yuan spending on 5G networks in 2022, a 3.5% decline, although it still accounts for nearly three-fifths of total capex. Chairman Yang Jie said that 5G spending would start to drop significantly from next year.

At the same time, operators are ramping up investments in digital transformation and computing. China Mobile will spend 48 billion yuan on cloud, data centers and IT. China Telecom has allocated 28 billion yuan to what it calls industrial digitalization, a 54% increase (see China cranks up national data center, computing project).